Will Nkurunziza's Bid for a Third Term Lead to a Crisis in Burundi?

Written By: Zane Heflin
Program Intern, World Affairs Council of Atlanta
Published: 5/14/2015

     Protests have broken out in recent weeks in response to President Pierre Nkurunziza’s decision to run for a third term. Nkurunziza has served as the President of Burundi since the conclusion of the Burundi Civil War in 2006, and a period of relative stability and growth has occurred under his leadership. However, the ethnic tension between the Hutu’s and Tutsi’s, which was responsible for the twelve year civil war, has once again flared up as Nkurunziza has been accused of attempting to bypass the constitution. Nkurunziza asserts that he is actually running for his second term, and is therefore in accordance with the constitution.. Rather than being elected by popular vote, Nkurunziza was appointed President by a parliamentary vote in his first term. Burundi’s constitutional court was called on to validate this claim, and they came to a conclusion in favor of Nkurunziza’s presidential bid. Opposition groups have accused the court of being manipulated and strong-armed by President Nkurunziza, and it is their concern that this ruling gives him false legitimacy in the international community. There are fears that Nkurunziza’s decision may provide the spark that leads to ethnic turmoil and further destabilization in the region.
     Pierre Nkurunziza, a Hutu and member of the Forces for the Defense of Democracy (FDD) party, took ninety-one percent of the popular vote in the election and is expected to have similar success in the June elections. The Hutu majority, responsible for the success of the FDD, tends to have a historic fear of Tutsi leadership, which drives them to vote along ethnic lines. The Tutsi ethnic group, which led the government during the colonial period, was responsible for oppressing the Hutu majority. After a series of military coups, assassinations, and transitional governments, many atrocities have been committed by both ethnic groups throughout Burundi’s recent history. Rwanda, Burundi’s neighbor, experienced the worst of the ethnic conflict following the assassination of Rwandan President Juvénal Habyarimana and Burundi President Cyprien Ntaryamira. The Rwandan Genocide was one of the worst humanitarian crises in African history, resulting in a death toll estimated to be between five hundred thousand and one million. Seventy percent of the Tutsi population in Rwanda was killed within a one hundred day period, which constituted approximately twenty percent of the total population. While Burundi was able to avert similar levels of violence thanks to its coalition government, ethnic tensions have not subsided.

     The international community cannot afford to make the same mistake that was made in Rwanda. The historical context of this ethnic conflict should cause observation of the situation in Burundi to be a top priority, because the consequence of acting in a slow and ineffective manner is too great to be ignored. An escalation of violence could result in a tragedy of equal magnitude to the Rwandan Genocide. Leaders in the international community from the UN, EU, and the United States have denounced Nkurunziza’s bid for a third term in the upcoming election, but this will likely have little to no impact on Nkurunziza’s decision. By manipulating the constitutional court and taking advantage of voting behavior in Burundi, a fair and just election will allow Nkurunziza to continue to hold his position for the foreseeable future. A strategy that involves imposition of sanctions on the government by the EU or the United States could possibly provide a disincentive to Nkurunziza, however such an action would likely do more harm than good. Burundi is heavily dependent on foreign aid, which makes up forty-two percent of its national income, and any change to this source of income will lead to further deterioration in living conditions for the general population. This leaves very few viable options for the international community except to watch the situation closely, and keep a UN peacekeeping force at the ready for deployment.

     On May 13th, Major General Godefroid Niyombare, a Burundi Army officer, claimed to have dissolved the current government in a military coup while Nkurunziza was in Tanzania discussing his concern of the growing number of protests. Members of the Nkurunziza administration have pronounced the coup as a “joke” and call it “imaginary”. The reality of the situation is not yet known, but people in Burundi are celebrating in the streets having heard the news that Nkurunziza has been ousted. Although there is very little information about the current position of the government and military, the attempted coup is evident of the military’s growing concern about Nkurunziza’s continued leadership. Both historical tragedy and recent events should serve to raise awareness of the situation in Burundi, and now it is the onus of the international community to effectively handle the volatile situation.